Greenland: Siltanews – News Desk
Scientists from the University of Liege in Belgium have predicted that the melting of Greenland’s glaciers will accelerate significantly by the end of the 21st century. The results of the work using the NIC5 supercomputer are published in Geophysical Research Letters.
During the study, three regional climate models were used – RACMO, MAR and HIRHAM. They predict a loss of 964 to 1,735 Gigatons of ice per year under the high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP585). This can lead to an increase in the level of the world’s oceans to one meter, which puts at risk millions of people living in coastal areas. Scientists emphasize the irreversibility of this process if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced.
To achieve high simulation accuracy, the scientists used the computing infrastructure of the University of Liege, including the NIC5 supercomputer. The models took into account complex physical processes such as seepage and refreezing of meltwater, as well as feedbacks to the albedo— the ability of the surface to reflect sunlight. These elements helped to calculate in detail the interaction between ice, atmosphere and ocean.
According to the study, Greenland already contributes about 25 percent to global sea level rise, which is equivalent to 0.6 millimeters per year. If the predicted acceleration of melting is confirmed, this contribution will increase to one meter by 2100. Such a rise in sea level will significantly increase the risks of flooding for coastal communities, threatening millions of people around the world.
One of the reasons for the discrepancy between the forecasts between the models is the different description of the processes of the water cycle in glaciers. For example, some of the meltwater may remain inside the ice sheet, while the other flows into the ocean. Taking into account these processes, including changes in the height of glaciers, will improve the accuracy of future climate models.
The results highlight the importance of immediate measures to reduce emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. The findings will be included in future reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), helping to refine global forecasts and develop adaptation strategies.